IDF doc shared with northern mayors sets out war scenarios
Aug 4, 2024 17:17:22 GMT -5
Post by shalom on Aug 4, 2024 17:17:22 GMT -5
IDF document shared with northern mayors sets out Hezbollah war scenarios
Security establishment sees potentially unprecedented rocket fire, major evacuations, power outages, water supply issues, disrupted telecom service and brief internet disruptions
By Shalom Yerushalmi
Today, 5:05 pm
A document by the Israel Defense Forces detailing the “Updated Scenario” in the event of an all-out war with Hezbollah was recently shared with northern mayors, The Times of Israel has learned.
The document was shared as Israel braces for a threatened response by Iran and Hezbollah to the killings last week of Hezbollah’s military commander Fuad Shukr in an Israeli strike in Beirut and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a blast in Tehran for which Israel has not claimed responsibility.
In the event of war with Hezbollah, the document envisages a potential three-day power outage in some cities; breakdowns in water supply that could last days; a disconnection of landlines for up to eight hours and cellphone communications for up to 24 hours; and brief local disruptions to radio and internet.
Some 40% of the nation’s workforce may be unable to work for the duration of the conflict, and service providers from outside affected areas may become unavailable throughout, according to the document.
The security establishment, The Times of Israel has learned, assesses that Israel could face an unprecedented attack with hundreds of rockets, carrying warheads ranging from payloads of 50 kilograms — like the one that hit Majdal Shams, killing 12 children at a soccer field — to 10 times that.
Hezbollah would be expected to prioritize targeting IDF facilities, then infrastructure, and then civilian targets, though that could change. It would be expected to aim at targets far to the south of Haifa, including Tel Aviv, possibly forcing the evacuation of large numbers of people to Jerusalem and to the south.
The evacuees would be housed in hotels, some of which are already housing numerous displaced Israelis from the north. If hotels in the Jerusalem area are full up, the evacuees would be accommodated in schools in the city.
Plans are being made for tent cities in the south, including in areas such as Timna, north of Eilat, and Eshkol Park in the Negev. The model for these is similar to that of the tents set up by Arcadi Gaydamak on Nitzanim Beach in 2006, for citizens evacuated from the north during the Second Lebanon War, and in 2007 at Yarkon Park for Sderot residents.
According to senior IDF sources, existing protective measures — notably including safe rooms — are extremely effective against missiles, including those of Hezbollah. Furthermore, according to the sources, the Home Front Command and local authorities are properly prepared for the scenario.
At the same time, “the reality for the other side will be far worse, to put it mildly,” one security official told The Times of Israel.
In the event of a major attack from the north, cities such as Sderot, Ofakim and Netivot would ironically become relatively safe places as regards Hezbollah missile strikes; cities in the south that were targeted in October 2023 would thus become cities of refuge in August 2024.
Yair Maayan, mayor of the southern city of Arad, last week encouraged residents of the north to consider evacuating to his quiet city, “and anybody who wants to, can also stay.”
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Security establishment sees potentially unprecedented rocket fire, major evacuations, power outages, water supply issues, disrupted telecom service and brief internet disruptions
By Shalom Yerushalmi
Today, 5:05 pm
A document by the Israel Defense Forces detailing the “Updated Scenario” in the event of an all-out war with Hezbollah was recently shared with northern mayors, The Times of Israel has learned.
The document was shared as Israel braces for a threatened response by Iran and Hezbollah to the killings last week of Hezbollah’s military commander Fuad Shukr in an Israeli strike in Beirut and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a blast in Tehran for which Israel has not claimed responsibility.
In the event of war with Hezbollah, the document envisages a potential three-day power outage in some cities; breakdowns in water supply that could last days; a disconnection of landlines for up to eight hours and cellphone communications for up to 24 hours; and brief local disruptions to radio and internet.
Some 40% of the nation’s workforce may be unable to work for the duration of the conflict, and service providers from outside affected areas may become unavailable throughout, according to the document.
The security establishment, The Times of Israel has learned, assesses that Israel could face an unprecedented attack with hundreds of rockets, carrying warheads ranging from payloads of 50 kilograms — like the one that hit Majdal Shams, killing 12 children at a soccer field — to 10 times that.
Hezbollah would be expected to prioritize targeting IDF facilities, then infrastructure, and then civilian targets, though that could change. It would be expected to aim at targets far to the south of Haifa, including Tel Aviv, possibly forcing the evacuation of large numbers of people to Jerusalem and to the south.
The evacuees would be housed in hotels, some of which are already housing numerous displaced Israelis from the north. If hotels in the Jerusalem area are full up, the evacuees would be accommodated in schools in the city.
Plans are being made for tent cities in the south, including in areas such as Timna, north of Eilat, and Eshkol Park in the Negev. The model for these is similar to that of the tents set up by Arcadi Gaydamak on Nitzanim Beach in 2006, for citizens evacuated from the north during the Second Lebanon War, and in 2007 at Yarkon Park for Sderot residents.
According to senior IDF sources, existing protective measures — notably including safe rooms — are extremely effective against missiles, including those of Hezbollah. Furthermore, according to the sources, the Home Front Command and local authorities are properly prepared for the scenario.
At the same time, “the reality for the other side will be far worse, to put it mildly,” one security official told The Times of Israel.
In the event of a major attack from the north, cities such as Sderot, Ofakim and Netivot would ironically become relatively safe places as regards Hezbollah missile strikes; cities in the south that were targeted in October 2023 would thus become cities of refuge in August 2024.
Yair Maayan, mayor of the southern city of Arad, last week encouraged residents of the north to consider evacuating to his quiet city, “and anybody who wants to, can also stay.”
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