Famed Iowa Pollster Ann Selzer Retires After Bombshell Miss
Nov 17, 2024 21:02:43 GMT -5
Post by J.J.Gibbs on Nov 17, 2024 21:02:43 GMT -5
Famed Iowa Pollster Ann Selzer Retires After Bombshell Miss
by Tyler Durden
Sunday, Nov 17, 2024 - 12:15 PM
A once-respected poll showed Vice President Harris leading by three percentage points in Iowa just days before the presidential election, which ultimately resulted in Donald Trump ahead by thirteen points—a massive margin of error of sixteen percentage points.
Following this public opinion polling blunder, pollster J. Ann Selzer stated in a guest column in the Des Moines Register on Sunday that her days advising the paper's famed Iowa Poll are over as she will be "transitioning to other ventures and opportunities."
Selzer was once considered the "gold standard" of polling, but after Trump swept the state by a 13-point margin, winning the actual vote 56-43%, she later acknowledged her poll was a "big miss" and suggested that it might have "actually energized [d] and activated [d] Republican voters who thought they would likely coast to victory," according to CNN.
"Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities," Selzer wrote in the Des Moines Register, emphasizing how her decision to retire was well in play before her disastrous polling results failed to capture a Trump win accurately.
She continued, "Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I'm humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings."
Well, perhaps science can become biased when some pollsters suffer from 'Trump derangement syndrome.'
Separately, Kristin Roberts, chief content officer of Gannett Media, which owns the Des Moines Register, told CNN that the Iowa Poll will "evolve as we find new ways to accurately capture public sentiment and the pulse of Iowans on state and national issues."
"Our mission is to provide trusted news and content to our readers and the public," Roberts said, adding, "We did not deliver on that promise when we shared results of the last Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, which did not accurately capture the outcome of the presidential election."
X user Torsten Prochnow had a good take on Selzer's retirement...
Ann Selzer's retirement marks the end of what was once considered the "gold standard" of polling, though her final performance suggests that standard had long since tarnished. Her last Iowa poll—Harris+3—was a stunning 16 points off the actual result of Trump+13. Such a massive error doesn't just undermine her credibility; it reflects a deeper problem with polling in general, especially those aligned with the leftist media narrative.
Pollsters today, with few exceptions, seem less interested in accurately gauging public opinion and more focused on shaping it. Many have become extensions of the legacy media, crafting polls designed to serve as self-fulfilling prophecies for leftist victories. These tactics, however, are crumbling under the weight of their own bias. Americans have grown wise to the manipulation, and the results of 2024 prove it: reality shattered the illusions pollsters tried to sell.
Selzer's exit feels symbolic of a larger trend—trust in mainstream polling has hit rock bottom. As Trump secures overwhelming victories like his blowout win in Iowa, it's clear that the era of using skewed polls to influence elections is over. The days of false narratives propped up by questionable polling are gone, replaced by an electorate that refuses to be gaslit.
Here's some of our reporting on pollsters oversampling and attempting to shape outcomes for a potential Harris victory in the months before the election...
Another Dem-Oversampled Poll Still Has Trump Beating Harris 48-45
Harris Polls "Much Less Rosy" Than Reported, SuperPAC Admits
Harris' So-Called 'Surge' Is Thanks To Oversampling: Pollsters
Meanwhile, the odds favored Trump at the betting platform Polymarket, as financial markets are generally more efficient. Pollsters (and MSM) suffering from TDS doomed themselves in the past election cycle, and their credibility has completely collapsed. As a result, Polymarket and other betting platforms are poised to dominate in upcoming elections.
link
by Tyler Durden
Sunday, Nov 17, 2024 - 12:15 PM
A once-respected poll showed Vice President Harris leading by three percentage points in Iowa just days before the presidential election, which ultimately resulted in Donald Trump ahead by thirteen points—a massive margin of error of sixteen percentage points.
Following this public opinion polling blunder, pollster J. Ann Selzer stated in a guest column in the Des Moines Register on Sunday that her days advising the paper's famed Iowa Poll are over as she will be "transitioning to other ventures and opportunities."
Selzer was once considered the "gold standard" of polling, but after Trump swept the state by a 13-point margin, winning the actual vote 56-43%, she later acknowledged her poll was a "big miss" and suggested that it might have "actually energized [d] and activated [d] Republican voters who thought they would likely coast to victory," according to CNN.
"Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities," Selzer wrote in the Des Moines Register, emphasizing how her decision to retire was well in play before her disastrous polling results failed to capture a Trump win accurately.
She continued, "Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I'm humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings."
Well, perhaps science can become biased when some pollsters suffer from 'Trump derangement syndrome.'
Separately, Kristin Roberts, chief content officer of Gannett Media, which owns the Des Moines Register, told CNN that the Iowa Poll will "evolve as we find new ways to accurately capture public sentiment and the pulse of Iowans on state and national issues."
"Our mission is to provide trusted news and content to our readers and the public," Roberts said, adding, "We did not deliver on that promise when we shared results of the last Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, which did not accurately capture the outcome of the presidential election."
X user Torsten Prochnow had a good take on Selzer's retirement...
Ann Selzer's retirement marks the end of what was once considered the "gold standard" of polling, though her final performance suggests that standard had long since tarnished. Her last Iowa poll—Harris+3—was a stunning 16 points off the actual result of Trump+13. Such a massive error doesn't just undermine her credibility; it reflects a deeper problem with polling in general, especially those aligned with the leftist media narrative.
Pollsters today, with few exceptions, seem less interested in accurately gauging public opinion and more focused on shaping it. Many have become extensions of the legacy media, crafting polls designed to serve as self-fulfilling prophecies for leftist victories. These tactics, however, are crumbling under the weight of their own bias. Americans have grown wise to the manipulation, and the results of 2024 prove it: reality shattered the illusions pollsters tried to sell.
Selzer's exit feels symbolic of a larger trend—trust in mainstream polling has hit rock bottom. As Trump secures overwhelming victories like his blowout win in Iowa, it's clear that the era of using skewed polls to influence elections is over. The days of false narratives propped up by questionable polling are gone, replaced by an electorate that refuses to be gaslit.
Here's some of our reporting on pollsters oversampling and attempting to shape outcomes for a potential Harris victory in the months before the election...
Another Dem-Oversampled Poll Still Has Trump Beating Harris 48-45
Harris Polls "Much Less Rosy" Than Reported, SuperPAC Admits
Harris' So-Called 'Surge' Is Thanks To Oversampling: Pollsters
Meanwhile, the odds favored Trump at the betting platform Polymarket, as financial markets are generally more efficient. Pollsters (and MSM) suffering from TDS doomed themselves in the past election cycle, and their credibility has completely collapsed. As a result, Polymarket and other betting platforms are poised to dominate in upcoming elections.
link
