The Perfect Storm: More Americans Can't Afford Car Payments
Jan 29, 2023 16:19:48 GMT -5
Post by J.J.Gibbs on Jan 29, 2023 16:19:48 GMT -5
"It's The Perfect Storm": More Americans Can't Afford Their Car Payments Than During The Peak Of Financial Crisis
BY TYLER DURDEN
SUNDAY, JAN 29, 2023 - 04:00 PM
For over a year, we have been dutifully tracking several key datasets within the auto sector to find the critical inflection point in this perhaps most leading of economic indicators which will presage not only a crushing auto loan crisis, but also signal the arrival of a full-blown recession, one which even the NBER won't be able to ignore, as the US consumers are once again tapped out. A month ago we said that in our view "that moment has now arrived"; the latest data from Fitch confirms as much.
But first, for those readers who are unfamiliar with the space, we urge you to read some of our recent articles on the topic of car prices - which alongside housing, has been the biggest driver of inflation in the past 18 months - and more specifically how these are funded by the US middle class, i.e., car loans, and last but not least, the interest rate paid for said loans. Here are a few places to start:
Are We Headed For An "Auto Loan Crisis" As Delinquencies Begin To Rise? - July 7
A Flood Of Repossessed Vehicles Poised To Hit The Used-Car Market - July 25
American Drivers Go Deeper Into Debt As Inflation Pushes Car Loans To Record Highs - Aug 29
Credit Card Rates Just Hit A Record As The Average Car Loan Rises To Fresh All Time High - Oct 9
New-Car Loan-Rates Set To Hit 14-Year High As Affordability Crisis Worsens - Nov 3
Perfect Storm Arrives: "Massive Wave" Of Car Repossessions And Loan Defaults To Trigger Auto Market Disaster, Cripple US Economy - Dec 18
So while the big picture is clear - Americans are using ever more debt to fund record new car prices - fast-forwarding to today, we have observed two ominous new developments: the latest consumer credit report from the Fed revealed a dramatic spike in the amount of new car loans, which increased by more than $2,000 in one quarter, from just over $38,000 (a record), to $40,155 (a new record).
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BY TYLER DURDEN
SUNDAY, JAN 29, 2023 - 04:00 PM
For over a year, we have been dutifully tracking several key datasets within the auto sector to find the critical inflection point in this perhaps most leading of economic indicators which will presage not only a crushing auto loan crisis, but also signal the arrival of a full-blown recession, one which even the NBER won't be able to ignore, as the US consumers are once again tapped out. A month ago we said that in our view "that moment has now arrived"; the latest data from Fitch confirms as much.
But first, for those readers who are unfamiliar with the space, we urge you to read some of our recent articles on the topic of car prices - which alongside housing, has been the biggest driver of inflation in the past 18 months - and more specifically how these are funded by the US middle class, i.e., car loans, and last but not least, the interest rate paid for said loans. Here are a few places to start:
Are We Headed For An "Auto Loan Crisis" As Delinquencies Begin To Rise? - July 7
A Flood Of Repossessed Vehicles Poised To Hit The Used-Car Market - July 25
American Drivers Go Deeper Into Debt As Inflation Pushes Car Loans To Record Highs - Aug 29
Credit Card Rates Just Hit A Record As The Average Car Loan Rises To Fresh All Time High - Oct 9
New-Car Loan-Rates Set To Hit 14-Year High As Affordability Crisis Worsens - Nov 3
Perfect Storm Arrives: "Massive Wave" Of Car Repossessions And Loan Defaults To Trigger Auto Market Disaster, Cripple US Economy - Dec 18
So while the big picture is clear - Americans are using ever more debt to fund record new car prices - fast-forwarding to today, we have observed two ominous new developments: the latest consumer credit report from the Fed revealed a dramatic spike in the amount of new car loans, which increased by more than $2,000 in one quarter, from just over $38,000 (a record), to $40,155 (a new record).
Continued at link
