Why You Shouldn’t Trust the Polls
Nov 5, 2024 14:33:19 GMT -5
Post by J.J.Gibbs on Nov 5, 2024 14:33:19 GMT -5
Why You Shouldn’t Trust the Polls
by Phoenix Capital Research
Tuesday, Nov 05, 2024 - 4:03
Polling in the United States is rapidly approaching fiction.
Why?
In a world in which having the wrong opinion on things can result in you losing your job or worse, who in their right mind would want to talk to a pollster?
Moreover, let us consider just how many times the media has had to retract a story, or admit (after the damage is done) a quote was either edited or even completely fabricated.
Again, I ask… who in their right mind would want to talk to a pollster? There is literally ZERO upside to doing so… but the downside can be immense.
Finally, consider that only 22% of Americans trust the government to do what is right. Frankly I’m shocked the percentage is that high. But still… if only one in five Americans believe the government is morally or ethically inclined to do the right thing, why would you risk invoking the ire of the millions of people who derive their paycheck from Uncle Sam by talking to a pollster?
The above statements are not merely a mental exercise either. We know from the polls themselves that the response rates are abysmal.
How many people respond to pollsters?
Well, response rates have been under 10% ever since 2012. And this year (2024) they’re close to 1%.
That’s correct, roughly one or maybe two out of every 100 people pollsters contact actually talk to the latter. And people believe these polls are worth the paper or URLs they’re published on!?!?
Add it all up and it’s pretty clear the polls are useless. We found this out in 2016. I believe we’ve about to find it out again. If the 2024 Presidential election was as close as the polls claim, do you really think stocks would be up 20% year to date?
Remember, Kamala Harris has proposed A) raising the capital gains tax across the board as well as B) imposing capital gains taxes on unrealized gains.
If Kamala Harris was about to win the Presidency, stocks would be collapsing as investors started selling shares in order to avoid those future taxes. They’re not. Instead, the S&P 500 is just 2% from all time highs. And the economically sensitive Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average are both close to all-time highs as well.
The markets know what the pollsters won’t tell you: Trump will win a 2nd term this week.
Smart investors are preparing for this now.
link
by Phoenix Capital Research
Tuesday, Nov 05, 2024 - 4:03
Polling in the United States is rapidly approaching fiction.
Why?
In a world in which having the wrong opinion on things can result in you losing your job or worse, who in their right mind would want to talk to a pollster?
Moreover, let us consider just how many times the media has had to retract a story, or admit (after the damage is done) a quote was either edited or even completely fabricated.
Again, I ask… who in their right mind would want to talk to a pollster? There is literally ZERO upside to doing so… but the downside can be immense.
Finally, consider that only 22% of Americans trust the government to do what is right. Frankly I’m shocked the percentage is that high. But still… if only one in five Americans believe the government is morally or ethically inclined to do the right thing, why would you risk invoking the ire of the millions of people who derive their paycheck from Uncle Sam by talking to a pollster?
The above statements are not merely a mental exercise either. We know from the polls themselves that the response rates are abysmal.
How many people respond to pollsters?
Well, response rates have been under 10% ever since 2012. And this year (2024) they’re close to 1%.
That’s correct, roughly one or maybe two out of every 100 people pollsters contact actually talk to the latter. And people believe these polls are worth the paper or URLs they’re published on!?!?
Add it all up and it’s pretty clear the polls are useless. We found this out in 2016. I believe we’ve about to find it out again. If the 2024 Presidential election was as close as the polls claim, do you really think stocks would be up 20% year to date?
Remember, Kamala Harris has proposed A) raising the capital gains tax across the board as well as B) imposing capital gains taxes on unrealized gains.
If Kamala Harris was about to win the Presidency, stocks would be collapsing as investors started selling shares in order to avoid those future taxes. They’re not. Instead, the S&P 500 is just 2% from all time highs. And the economically sensitive Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average are both close to all-time highs as well.
The markets know what the pollsters won’t tell you: Trump will win a 2nd term this week.
Smart investors are preparing for this now.
link
